Development is not linear. Nothing has been as stark a reminder of that as the Guardians this season.
Even as they battle the Twins for first place in the AL Central, they have had their struggles in the first half. Ten months ago, they were a marvel, capturing the AL Central title and taking the vaunted Yankees to Game 5 of the ALDS in a year they needed 17 rookies making their MLB debut to get there.
Fast forward to this this week, and things are a little more frustrating and murkier at the big-league level. A large developmental win — even if somewhat unintended to this point of the season — is how fast the next wave of pitching came along, which could anchor the big-league rotation for the better part of the next decade.
This time a year ago, Tanner Bibee was about to be promoted to Double-A Akron and had yet to land on many top-100 prospect lists. Now he may be the Guardians’ second-best starter with Triston McKenzie’s next 12-14 months in doubt.
Logan Allen hit a speed bump with a 6.49 ERA in his first 14 Triple-A starts at the end of 2022. But now he is right up there with Bibee as one of the most important figures in the big-league rotation at the moment and in the foreseeable future.
Gavin Williams was just about a top-100 prospect from the time he was drafted. Now he has two big-league starts under his belt, as Cleveland started the free agent clock of the Scott Boras client a year ahead of his Rule 5 schedule would have dictated (along with Bibee, who is not a Boras client).
Cleveland hoped for better results from free-agent signing Mike Zunino. But he struggled and was let go. Meanwhile, Bo Naylor posted a .890 OPS at Triple-A, proving his 2022 breakout as a prospect was no fluke and should now have a long runway to prove he is the Guardians’ catcher of the future.
The lifeblood of the Guardians, their farm system, has hit some turbulence so far in 2023. They have or will graduate Steven Kwan, Will Brennan, Tyler Freeman, Xzavion Curry, Hunter Gaddis, Gabriel Arias, Bibee, Allen, Naylor and Williams going back the last year. Not to mention moving on from others, including Nolan Jones and Will Benson.
Still in the minors, as far as top 100 prospects are concerned, shortstop Brayan Rocchio made his brief MLB debut this year. He continues to have a solid year at Triple-A awaiting a chance behind Arias and Freeman, as well. A somewhat forgotten man with all of these pitching debuts, Daniel Espino, was often thought of as more talented than Bibee, Williams and Allen. He likely won’t get to resume his career until next summer after having shoulder surgery earlier this year.
Outfielder George Valera only just recently stepped away from hanging out with Espino at the trainer’s table, recovering from offseason wrist surgery that knocked him out in spring training, and then a hamstring injury recently that he was saddled with not long after coming back from the wrist issue. He’s just past 200 Triple-A plate appearances and doesn’t appear to be ready to help the Guardians’ ailing offense immediately.
Speaking of the trainer’s table, Espino isn’t the only pitching prospect who has spent time on the shelf this year. 2022 draft picks, pitchers Justin Campbell, Dylan DeLucia and Jacob Zibin are all out for the season with surgeries. Zibin had Tommy John.
2021 draft picks Jack Leftwich and Ryan Webb are both currently on the injured list with shoulder and oblique issues, respectively.
It’s not all bad, though and there may be some hope that these players who are injured can come back and quickly turn things around. Left-hander Joey Cantillo, who missed just about all of 2021, and then half of 2022, is having a solid season between Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus (3.55 ERA in 58 1/3 innings, with 74 strikeouts) and is just about to eclipse his 2022 innings total. He was recently named to the MLB Futures Game roster.
Juan Brito, the infielder who came over from Colorado in the Nolan Jones trade, posted a .265/.379/.424 line in 35 games at High-A before his promotion to Double-A. Since then, the 21-year-old has a .326/.413/.472 line in 24 games at Double-A. Even if you would like to debate if the Guardians could use Jones in the outfield in Cleveland, Brito looks like another good find by the team and could end the year in Triple-A.
If you’re looking for power help from Triple-A, don’t look to Jhonkensy Noel, who has spent time in the outfield. He’s only 21 and has more power than anyone in the organization. But is hitting just .194/.285/.388 with 13 homers but 80 strikeouts in 288 plate appearances.
Looking ahead to the second half, the Guardians did promote 2022 draft pick Parker Messick to High-A Lake County after the 22-year-old posted a 3.02 ERA in 56 2/3 innings at Low-A Lynchburg. At some point in the second half, 2022 first-rounder OF Chase DeLauter should join an affiliate, possibly Lake County, as he is working on coming back from reoccurring foot injuries going back to his college season last year.
Finally, as far as international prospects go, 18-year-old outfielder Jaison Chourio has drawn good reviews in rookie ball in Arizona and hopefully will force the normally cautious Guardians to promote him to an affiliate before the end of the year. An infielder from the 2022-2023 international signing class, Welbyn Franciscia, has also drawn rave reviews as possibly the best prospect in the Dominican Summer League. Though a lot can happen between now and whenever these teenagers attempt to reach the upper levels of the farm system.
The 2023 draft is just around the corner, and it is lauded as one of the strongest drafts in recent memory, especially as far as college hitters go, and the Guardians have three of the top 96 picks. They have also proven that they don’t need to select a pitcher in the first round (none of Shane Bieber, Allen or Bibee were first-round picks) to develop them into major league starters.
